Written by Dave Homsher on Thursday, 09 October 2008 Category:Sports Hits:3524

JIM SARRUDA

Some may think the Phillies are favorite against the Dodgers.  Let me speak directly with you....

Philadelphia doesn't usually win big games.

This is coming from a guy that watched the Eagles lose three straight NFC Championships.  Despite what seeding may tell you, the Eagles were easily favored in all three of those games.  I have no problem saying as an NFL fan, that the Philadelphia Eagles were the better team all three times, and should have won the big game.  The fact that they didn't, I understand is part of football, and is part of the game.  Sometimes, things happen that just can't be predicted or explained.

Sometimes a mediocre at best Pittsburg team plays a horrific Seahawks team in the Superbowl, and wins a disgusting contest.  Sometimes Peyton Manning and his stellar Colts team sit out the Super Bowl.  Sometimes REx Grossman takes center stage.  Sometimes it just happens that way.

In baseball, remember when Colorado decided to win every game at the end of the season and then blow through the National League playoffs?  Sometimes it just doesn't make sense.

Sometimes it can't be justified.

So it bothers me when people say things like "The Phillies should beat the Dodgers."

You know why?  Its because the Phillies shouldn't beat anyone.

They are in a position where four wins brings them to a World Series.  They have a talented lineup, but right now, both teams have a clean slate.

The Phillies have good pitching, but right now, nobody has pitched yet.

Chase Utley hasn't been hitting, but he hasn't come to the plate yet.

Ryan Howard has been devastating, but he hasn't swung a bat yet.

There is a clean slate for both teams.  It is a new season and it starts tommorow.

Joe Torre is a great manager, one who I have the most respect for.  He has no doubt convinced his team that these next two games will be the most important games of some of his players careers.

Charlie Manuel has earned the respect of his team last year, and they love him and respect him.  He has brought this team together as a unit.

This is a fresh start.  This might be their only chance.   All baseball players live for this moment.  They live for these games.  They live for Thursday.

So when you say to yourself, "the Phillies should win," I beg you to remember all the uncertainties of professional sports.  I beg you to remember how nothing is for sure and nobody is infallible.

Whether it is Ryan Howard or Carlos Ruiz who hits the homerun that wins the game will have nothing to do with the Regular Season.

Whether it is Matt Kemp or Manny Ramirez that makes the diving catch for the final out will have nothing to do with the Regular Season.

The Time is now. The Regular Season has ended.  This is the post season.  This is a unique time.  This is the only time of year that matters.  This is the only month that matters.

There is only one October, dammit, so everybody make some noise!!

DAVE HOMSHER

WWWWOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(in an unrelated point of contention, the Eagles were not better than the Rams when they lost their first NFC title game 29-24 in St. Louis.  That Rams team was pretty nasty…defending champs and something like 15-2 heading into that game…however the Eagles did completely and utterly choke in the next 2 NFC title games at home against Tampa and Carolina)
 

Now onto the Phillies:

Dave’s short analysis:

Batting: Slight Edge LA– The Phils were much better over the course of the year, but the Dodgers have been hotter of late.  With Utley and Howard cold in the NLDS, I have to give the edge to LA

Starting Pitching – Slight edge to the Phillies – I give Hamels a miniscule edge over Lowe, Billingsly a small edge over Myers (Myers at his best is better, but Billingsly is WAY more reliable), and Moyer and edge in game 3.  However, LA has an edge in that Lowe might pitch 3 games (1, 4, and 7) but I doubt Hamels will do the same – just never gone on short rest.  However, it does mean a well rested Hamels would face Billingsly in game 5 potentially.

Bullpen: - Slight Edge Phillies – more lefties and deeper overall.  LA has a good pen, but its righty dominant and they might have a tough time against a left hand dominant phils lineup.

Bench – Edge Phillies – Greg Dobbs = advantage, period

Manager: Edge Dodgers – Torre vs. Manual, enough said

Note….I scored it 3-2 Phillies
 

In a series this even, where I don’t think either team has a “Big” Edge in any one category, I am going to make my pick based on these 2 things:

1. I expect the games to be close and a lot of games to come down to the last 2 or 3 innings.  I think the fact that the Dodgers pitching staff has so many right handers is going to help the Phillies late in games as it will allow Utley, Howard, Dobbs, Rollins, Victorino, etc. to get a lot of good swings. Also the Phils record with the lead after 8 is pretty darn solid, so I think that’s an edge if they can get it to Lidge

2.  The Phils have home field advantage.  Even though I don’t think it is going to count for a whole lot, if the series goes where I think it’s going, those rally towels are going to be the difference in the final game. 
 

Prediction – Phillies in 7

JEREMY COOK

Heh, actually, I'd completely reverse a chunk of the rankings you threw
up there and probably end up with a similar idea haha.

Phils Line-up >>>> Dodgers Line-up

Phils outscored the Dodgers by 100 runs on the year.  And for the month
of September, when the Dodgers were "hot" (by which I mean, Manny was
obscene) you guys still out-scored them.

That said, the Dodgers pitching staff gets the slight edge.  And it's
kinda funny because the statistics are so split.  Phils pen has better
ERA and more saves, but the Dodgers pen peripherals are so much better
that that would be my pick.  They strike out more batters, walk fewer
batters, and give up fewer hits in more innings pitched.

That said, the lefty-righty thing is a valid point.  The Dodgers
basically have lefty Joe Beimel and he's your run of the mill
lefty-specialist, nothing special or dominant.

As far as the starting rotations go, I'm giving it a push.  Derek Lowe
vs. Hamels should be good, but Hamels is better.  I've never liked Chad
Billingsley and his K-rates and hit rates both went in a bad direction
in the 2nd half.  But I'm making Myers prove it to me all post-season.
Between his first half and his inconsistencies in his last few starts of
the regular season, I know he can bring the goods, but I'm not betting
money on it.  So that's a push.  But I like either of Lowe on 3 days
rest or Kershaw over Joe Blanton.  So I'm giving the rotation to the
Dodgers by an edge.

Dave make's a good point in considering the bench.  The NL, in the
playoffs, is when you need your 10th, 11th, and 12th men on your team
(sometimes more) and Angel Berroa, Danny Ardoin, and Juan Pierre
pinch-hitting or defensive replacing or double-switching in the 6th
inning and on is ONLY going to help you.  Because no matter whom they
replace, they're hurting the dodgers line-up, while the Phils have
MULTIPLE guys who swing the sticks on their bench and still provide a
legitimate threat to the opposing pitchers.  Bench goes to the Phils.

Managing-wise, Joe Torre's track record speaks for itself.  That said,
he can thank Manny for this trip to the Playoffs, and Charlie Manuel HAS
been in the playoffs before and does know his team better then Joey 'Hot
Chai' Torre currently does.  Joe Torre, similarly to Jim, gets as much
respect from me as any manager in the game, but the advantage here isn't
great enough to make it anymore then a push.

So at this point, we're at 2-2-1 haha.

Coming up in the next installment, my gut feeling and my prediction :)

The Phillies should win haha.

Your 4th dimension of sports or not, the fun part is taking what you
KNOW, considering what we know of how the Phillies match-up against
lefties and righties.  How their staff threw over the course of the last
few weeks.  And using that knowledge given to us as an example of what
they are capable of and what can be expected of them.  And I enjoy
choosing to exercise that right in making predictions.

That's part of the fun.  You believe the 4th dimension rules, and you
can say whatever you want, that's fine.  I believe statistics rule, and
will prevail, that's fine.  The term "favorite" is a loose one, and one
person's "mediocre" Steelers are another's "Long-Overdue" ya know.

So in the end, I think it'll take 7 games, but they have more of that
talent thing, and they have more of that experience thing.

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