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Final 4 Projection Update PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Jeremy Cook on Wednesday, 16 January 2008
Category:Sports
Hits:1400

So a few months back (Okay November), I made my picks for the final 4.  And I’m sticking by them through the end of the regular season.  They’re not that far out there, but they’re my picks, and my reasons, and I thought I’d give a heads up on how they’ve done so far.

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Historical Dominance in Purple

Kansas State – 11-4, just defeated Oklahoma in their first Big 12 game of the year, Michael Beasley averaging 25 and 13, just shy of Kevin Durant's scoring pace thanks to a 5 point, 12 rebound performance against Xavier.  Good to see him still rebounding in the poor scoring game though, also had a few blocks and a steal.  I'm still picking this team as my "Carried by 1 single player into the final 4" team assuming they don't get hit with a BRUTAL draw.  Joe Lunardi on ESPN.com currently has them as an 8 seed facing North Carolina.  I don't see this team ending up seeded that low.  I see them having like, a high 7 seed in the tourney and wreaking havoc on a "bad" 2 seed in the 2nd round and blowing up from there.  This team is Freshman heavy, but they've got 2 guys that could jump to the Pro's after this year and both know that to do that, they have got to show up in the tourney.  It's a Contract Year for the K-State freshman, and they're going to end up a 6 or 7, face Indiana in the 2nd round, and Beasley is going to out-score Eric Gordon for the W.  Book it. Memphis – 16-0, This team has absolutely nothing in front of their tourney experience.  It would be the upset of the century if they don't have a 1 seed at the end of the year, because it would mean someone in Conference USA would actually have to beat them, and John Calipari isn't going to let that happen.  They have exactly 1 team worth worrying about left on their schedule, Bruce Pearl and his Tennessee Vols.  That will be an interesting game to watch, and it is geniously scheduled.  It won't hurt them getting a one seed if they lose, but it'll be a tremendous boost to beat a talented team that close to March if they win.  This team has the athleticness and the depth to compete with anyone in the country, and going in with a 1 seed means they're not going to face any real stiff competition until the Sweet 16 and even by then, the Duo of Douglas-Roberts and Rose, along with their big boys Dozier and Dorsey down low, they have weapons to take on any style team.  The only concern is their apparent inability to shoot free throws.  They are shooting 58% as a team with 1 player shooting over 70%.  This does not bode well for when they get deep into the tourney, as deeper teams are going to be putting them at the line all day rather then letting them run.

North Carolina – 18-0, Another team with no real reason to lose much before the tourney.  The ACC is pretty deep this year, but not that good.  The top is weak, the bottom is weak, but the middle has a lot of competitive squads.  UNC will get tripped up for 3 or 4 losses, but that'll be it, and after running the ACC Tourney, they'll be sitting in a 1 seed for the big dance.  The only question with this team is if they can keep their head on straight and EVERYONE stays motivated.  They clearly have the ability to pour in points when they so choose, but as a team they've looked lazy and disinterested at many different times this year.  They're going to be ranked #4 in the nation by year's end, and they're going to be hungry come Tourney time.  This team can run with the ball, they make free throws, they have multiple guys that can hit from beyond the arc.  Their tourney run will depend on Ellington and Lawson.  Ellington's jump shot and Lawson's ability to penetrate will be crucial in playing in a half court against slow-mo teams in the tourney.  You know Hansbrough will show up, and he'll dominate the smaller teams in the early rounds, but he's not going to carry this team deep into the tourney on his own.  UNC goes in as a 1 seed, stumbles in the sweet 16, but cruises into the Final 4.

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Eclipsing Gonzaga as team to beat in Washington
 

Washington State – 14-1, This is the clichéd, deep team, led by experienced seniors, from a major conference.  They drift mostly under the radar for the whole season and then upset the conference big-boy in the tourney.  They'll go into the Tourney as a #3 seed in the West with UCLA as their #1, and they'll take out the Bruins in the Elite 8 for their Final Four birth.  They scored 10 points in the first 15 minutes against the Bruins in their first match-up, and that's not going to happen again.  They do not have an easy schedule the rest of the year, so even a 3 seed could be difficult.  Games against UCLA, Arizona State (2x), USC, Oregon (2x), and Arizona (2x) mean this team will be truly tested come tourney time.  The Pac-10 is no cake-walk division.  But this team has 7 guys putting up 8 points a game or more, and all are Juniors and Seniors.  They shoot free throws well, have multiple weapons from outside, 2 big boys inside, and a coach that prides himself on defense, this team sets up well for a deep run in the tourney.  The undefeated start brought them an un-expected 4th ranking in the nation early on, but that is more due to the rest of the top 10 being weak then their own early-season accomplishments.  This team is going to go into the tourney ranked around 11 in the nation, right into a 3 seed in the tourney.  They've got all the tools, they've got plenty of talent, just wait and see what they do.


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By:Jeremy Cook
Category:Sports
Hits:1400
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JCO - OH YEA     | 67.83.106.245 | 2008-02-05 20:37:10
I call bull. You'll be lucky to get one of them in. Memphis will choke, UNC is terrible, and you seriously think WSU and KSU have anything more then sweet 16 talent? Beasley my left buttcheek.
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