Written by Dave Homsher on Sunday, 16 March 2008 Category:Sports Hits:3727

MARCH MADNESS IS HERE!!!  Selection Sunday has arrived!!  We’ve all got our brackets and are making our picks.  Let me start by saying that the Thursday of the NCAA tournament is the best day of the year, better than Christmas, better than Easter, better than Thanksgiving, better than (gasp) Super Bowl Sunday.  There’s nothing better than kicking back with a few friends, cracking open a cold one or eleven, and watching 13 straight hours of college basketball.  I can’t think of any way I’d rather spend my Thursday than by rooting for Belmont to drop 48 3 pointers on Duke, to cheer wildly as Siena takes Vanderbilt to the wire, and to scream at the top of my lungs as Cornell upsets Stanford.

And with that, some quick thoughts on the bracket, bracket selection tips, my thoughts on the individual matchups for the 1st weekend, and my bracket. 

For more insights into some of the teams in the tournament, see Part 1 and Part 2 of my March idiocy.       

Quick Thoughts:

1. I have to admit that I am in a fantastic mood.  On Friday I was worried that Philadelphia might not get a single team in the NCAA tournament, but then Temple comes from nowhere to win the A10 tourney, St. Joseph’s sneaks in one of the final at-large bid, and my boys from Villanova get THE FINAL BID, THE VERY LAST SPOT.  Philadelphia doesn’t usually get too many breaks, but even I will admit that things went our way on Sunday.  To top things off, they stuck BOTH Temple and Villanova in the dreaded 5-12 matchup, and AT LEAST ONE 12 seed wins every year, so why not us this time?

Big 5 Dancing!!

2.  They matched up too many of the mid majors.  Check out this list below:

7 Butler vs. 10 South Alabama
8 UNLV vs. 9 Kent State
7 Gonzaga vs. 10 Davidson
5 Drake vs. 12 Western Kentucky

I always like to see them match up smaller schools with larger schools in the first round.  Sometimes mid-major schools are really not deserving of a tournament spot, and they get CRUSHED in the first round.  Other times, they knock out a top flight team, and make memorable runs to the sweet 16 or even farther.  The problem with matching them up in round 1 is twofold:

1. If NEITHER one was deserving of selection, it’s AUTOMATIC that one of them moves into the second round.
2. If BOTH were deserving of selection, it’s AUTOMATIC that one of them is ELIMINATED in the first round. 

It’s important to match up smaller schools with larger ones so we can see who’s really better.  Matching up all of the mid majors together doesn’t really allow us to separate who is really better. 

3.  Butler got SCREWED.  How can Butler be 29-3, Horizon league regular season champions, Horizon league conference tournament champs, RANKED 10TH NATIONALLY, AND GET A #7 SEED???  I’m not going to argue that they are the 10th best team in the nation, but there is no way you can convince me that they don’t deserve to at least be a 4 or 5 seed.  USC and Oklahoma on the #6 line lost ELEVEN games EACH.  Last year Butler was a #5 seed.  How can you tell me that with most of the same team returning from last year, and a record of 29-3 is a LOWER seed than they were last year.  To top things off, they get to play South Alabama IN ALABAMA!!!  How can you be 29-3 and play a ROAD GAME in the first round of the NCAA tournament?

4.  There is a MASSIVE talent drop off from the #2 seeds to the #3 seeds.  I feel that any of the 1s and 2s can make the final 4, but after that Louisville is the only team that I really think can make that sort of run.  As a result, I’ve got a pretty boring bracket after the first few rounds this year. 

5. DO NOT EXPAND THE TOURNAMENT.  For some reason I heard several of the ESPN experts such as Bob Knight and Digger Phelps suggest that we should expand the tournament.  When Dickie V is the voice of reason, you KNOW something is wrong.  Instead of expanding the tournament, and completely and utterly watering the playing field down by having 128 teams (which is also ridiculous since there are really only 6-7 bubble teams who don’t make it every year), I have a solution for the 66th team…the Arizona States and Virginia Techs of the world…WIN MORE GAMES!!!  No team from a major conference has anything to whine about if they don’t get in.  I’ve never seen a team from a major conference with 22 or 23 wins not get selected, so it’s pretty simple…win 2-3 more games, and you’ll get in.  PERIOD.  The NCAA tournament is the best thing ever.  LEAVE IT ALONE!!

Bracket Selection Tips:

1. The four #1s NEVER make the final 4.  NEVER.  And by never, I mean, its NEVER happened.  (Got that in your head yet?)  Watching both Jay Bilas (who I really like) and Digger Phelps (who I really don’t) select all 4 #1s to make the final 4 was absolutely painful.  WAY TO GO OUT ON A LIMB GUYS!!!  In all of the years of the tournament, it’s never happened, and it won’t this year.  It’s too hard to win 4 games in a row, and there is too much parity in college basketball.  So I suggest that you try and figure out which 1 or 2 of the top seeds have the toughest roads, and you pick against them.  Chances are they won’t make it. 

2. Just go ahead and pencil the 1s and 2s into the second round.  #1 seeds are 92-0 in the first round, and #2 seeds are 88-4.  Now, AT SOME POINT, a #1 is going to lose to a #16, and once every 5 years or so, a #2 goes down to a #15, but, let’s be honest, you aren’t smart enough to predict it, so take the nearly sure thing in those games. 

3. A 12 ALWAYS beats a 5 (well, except in 2007).  I usually try and find 2 12s that have a good shot and go with them.  I happen to like Temple who is on a 7 game winning streak, and Villanova because I am a HUGE homer, who always thinks Philly teams are going to win every game.  Clemson is playing great, so I have no other basis for that pick other than the fact that Villanova is my team.     

4. Hedge your bets on occasion.  For example, let’s say you have NO IDEA who is going to win USC/Kansas State, but you LOVE Wisconsin to beat Cal State Fullerton.  In that case, go ahead and pencil in Wisconsin into the sweet 16.  You might think that USC or Kansas State has a shot against Wisconsin, but you don’t know who is going to play them.  If you are wrong in round 1, at least you’ve got a SHOT to win the 2nd round game.  It’s important to keep as many teams alive as possible for as long as possible.  This has helped me finish in the top 20% of my pools in each of the last 10 years.  (However, I’ve only won once, so you might want to flat out disregard everything I’ve said.)

5. There WILL be upsets.  There always are.  Go ahead and pick a few.  If you don’t pick any upsets, then you have no shot to win your bracket.  I like to look for teams with upperclassmen who’ve been to the tournament before, or teams that create unique matchup problems for their opponent.  As a fictitious example, let’s say that Stanford struggles mightily against zone, and Cornell has one of the best zone defenses in the country.  Sounds like an upset candidate to me. 

6. When all else fails, just go with your gut.  College basketball knowledge usually doesn’t mean a DAMN THING in these pools.  More often than not, the pool winner is some chick who hasn’t watched 10 seconds of basketball all year, but likes a team’s mascot or their colors.  The bottom line is, you can use just about any selection method you want, and you have just as good a shot to win your pools as Dick Vitale or Jay Bilas. 

First weekend picks: 

1st Round:

East Region:
1 UNC vs. 16 Mt. St. Mary’s/Coppin State – UNC.  No explanation needed
8 Indiana vs. 9 Arkansas – Indiana hasn’t played well lately, but they’ve got a great inside/outside combination with DJ White and Eric Gordon.  Indiana wins a close one. 
5 Notre Dame vs. 12 George Mason – George Mason looks to make another run, but this team is not nearly as good as the one from 2 years ago.  Notre Dame has too much outside shooting.
4 Washington St. vs. 13 Winthrop – This game should be very close.  Washington State plays fantastic defense, but their style is not conducive to blow outs.  Winthrop upset Notre Dame last year, so they won’t be intimidated by playing on the national stage.  I like Washington State and their senior leadership, but Winthrop has got a chance to pull the upset. 
6 Oklahoma vs. 11 St. Joseph’s – Oklahoma has 11 losses.  St. Joes has 12.  Oklahoma ended its regular season by losing by TWENTY EIGHT to Texas.  St Joes won 3 straight games including a big upset win over Xavier before falling to a hot Temple team in the A10 final.  I’m going with the hotter team.  St. Joes wins a close one.
3 Louisville vs. 14 Boise St. – Louisville pressures Boise State into ONE THOUSAND TURNOVERS and blows them off the court. 
7 Butler vs. 10 South Alabama – Butler is going to be a little mad based on all of the reasons listed above.  They are going to go into Alabama and absolutely CRUSH South Alabama in the first round. 
2 Tennessee vs. 15 American – Tennessee is the most balanced team in the tournament.  They should win easily vs. American.

Midwest Region:
1 Kansas vs. 16 Portland St. – Kansas.  Obvious choice. 
8 UNLV vs. 9 Kent St. – Kent State is a legitimately good mid major.  I think they get the win over UNLV.
5 Clemson vs. 12 Villanova - Which Clemson team shows up?  Will it be the team that upset Duke and nearly defeated UNC in the ACC tournament?  Or will it be the team that lost to Florida State a few weeks ago.  The Nova fan in me really hopes it’s the latter, but the basketball fan in me thinks Clemson continues its hot streak and knocks out the Wildcats in a hard fought battle.
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Siena - Vanderbilt stinks.  They’ve been crap all year, and they will continue to be crap.  However, they are tournament tested and should be able to scrap together at least one victory.
6 USC vs. 11 Kansas St. – This is probably the best first round matchup of them all.  OJ Mayo of USC and Michael Beasley of KSU are 2 of the best freshman in the country.  However, these are two teams on opposite courses.  KSU has lost 5 of its last 7 while USC has won 6 of its final 8 including wins over Arizona, Arizona State, and Stanford.  Beasley might get 40, but USC should move on to the 2nd round. 
3 Wisconsin vs. 14 Cal St. Fullerton – Wisconsin’s defense is too tough.  Cal St. won’t know what hit them.
7 Gonzaga vs. 10 Davidson – Davidson has been my small team all year, and playing close to home in Raleigh doesn’t hurt.  No reason to go against them now.  Stephen Curry goes for 30+ in a win over Gonzaga.  
2 Georgetown vs. 15 UMBC – Georgetown is playing very well right now with fantastic balance on offense and defense.  They’ve also got an incredible inside/outside game with Hibbert inside and Sapp, Wallace, etc. hitting 3s from the perimeter.  They should win easily, but this might be the surprise “close” game in the 2-15 matchup that seems to come every 2 years.  Since Georgetown traditionally plays pretty slow, it might allow UMBC to stay close if Georgetown is not able to knock down its open 3s.

South Region:
1 Memphis vs. 16 Texas Arlington – Memphis.  Not analyzing this one.
8 Mississippi St. vs. 9 Oregon – Oregon stinks.  Most people are complaining that they don’t even belong in the tournament.  Even though I tend to agree, the Ducks will use this as motivation and defeat a mediocre Mississippi St. team
5 Michigan St. vs. 12 Temple – Temple comes in extremely hot, winning 7 straight games to earn its spot into the tournament.  They’ve got 2 great guards in Dionte Christmas and Mark Tyndale who can go off for big nights.  Michigan St. does not make a lot of sense to me.  Sometimes they look fantastic, and other times they look thoroughly mediocre.  Despite the fact that Tom Izzo teams usually do well in the NCAA, I think this is the most likely 5/12 upset.  Temple wins a close one. 
4 Pittsburgh vs. 13 Oral Roberts – Pitt is coming off an incredible run in NYC to win the Big East tournament.  They should have no issue moving past Oral.
6 Marquette vs. 11 Kentucky – Kentucky STINKS.  Not only that, but they lost their best player for the season.  Marquette has been inconsistent, but they are better than Kentucky at just about every position on the court.  Marquette wins.
3 Stanford vs. 14 Cornell – I’d like to see the Ivy league undefeated champion Cornell make some noise, and Stanford hasn’t impressed me at all this season, but I just don’t see it happening.  Stanford is just too big inside. 
7 Miami vs. 10 St. Mary’s – This is one of the most irrelevant games of the entire tournament.  Whoever wins this game is going to get MURDERED by Texas in round 2.  I know little about the teams, so I’ll go with St. Mary's in a mild upset to make sure I’m not favoring ALL of the top teams. 
2 Texas vs. 15 Austin Peay – Texas by 40.

West Region:
1 UCLA vs. 16 Mississippi Valley State – UCLA in a landslide. 
8 BYU vs. 9 Texas A&M – BYU wins this one.  Texas A&M has looked TERRIBLE since showing a lot of promise early in the year. 
5 Drake vs. 12 Western Kentucky – Drake is the best shooting team in the entire field.  They are a matchup nightmare for even the best of teams.  Combine that with a solid defense, and Western Kentucky is going home early.
4 UCONN vs. 13 San Diego – UConn has been one of my sleeper picks for months.  However, I didn’t particularly like how they finished the year, with losses to a weak Providence team and West Virginia in the Big East tournament means they better get their act together fast if they want to make some noise in this tournament.  I think San Diego keeps it close, entering the tournament with wins over St. Mary’s and Gonzaga to earn the automatic WCC bid, but the size of UConn is too much for SD to handle.  
6 Purdue vs. 11 Baylor – Baylor is TERRIBLE.  They were invited to the big dance solely on the quality of the Big 12 as a whole.  Their best win was against a slumping Kansas State team, and they were knocked from the Big 12 tournament by a terrible Colorado team who was only 3-13 in the league.  Purdue moves on to the 2nd round.
3 Xavier vs. 14 Georgia – Georgia had a great run last week, coming from NO WHERE to win the SEC tournament.  However, Xavier has consistently been one of the top 15 teams in the country all season long.  Georgia’s hot streak might keep it close, but expect Xavier to win.
7 West Virginia vs. 10 Arizona – West Virginia was a solid team in the Big East, but they’ve become too reliant on the OUTSTANDING play of Joe Alexander recently.  Arizona has the size and speed to keep him in check.  Expect the freshman 1-2 punch of Jerryd Bayless and Chase Budinger to lead a battle tested (#2 Strength of Schedule) Arizona team to a close victory.
2 Duke vs. 15 Belmont – Put this one down as the “fun” game of the first round.  Duke does nothing but shoot 3s all season long, but guess what? Belmont made FIFTY MORE 3 pointers than Duke did on the season.  Duke will win by 15 or more, but both teams should have no trouble getting to 70 or 80 points. 

2nd Round:

East Region:
1 UNC vs. 8 Indiana – Indiana has got a shot against anyone with DJ White and Eric Gordon, but UNC has got the most explosive offense in college basketball.  The only way to beat them is to slow them down, but I don’t think Indiana is disciplined enough to do that.  They will try and run with UNC, and it will be their undoing. 
4 Washington St. vs. 5 Notre Dame – This matchup is a classic contrast in styles.  Notre Dame wants to score as many points as possible, and Washington State wants to slow the game wear you down with their defense.  Notre Dame should make just enough shots to pull out a close one. 
3 Louisville vs. 11 St. Joseph’s – I love St. Joe’s.  Nothing would make me happier than to see them make a deep run in the tournament, however, Louisville is just too tough of a draw.  They are far and away the best #3 seed, and Pitino has a history of great runs in the NCAA.  Louisville should have no problem handling St. Joe’s by double digits. 
2 Tennessee vs. 7 Butler – This is possibly the most interesting 2nd round matchup of them all.  This game could easily be taking place in the sweet 16 or the elite 8.  These 2 teams played last year, and Butler PICKED APART Tennessee.  However, this year’s Tennessee team is much better.  They’ve got talent and experience.  They can play inside and out, fast or slow, and got as much variety to their game as any team in the tournament.  Butler is going to be an EXTREMELY tough out, but Tennessee should be able to “out-athlete” them in a close game. 

Midwest Region:
1 Kansas vs. 9 Kent St. – Kansas by 20.
4 Vanderbilt vs. 5 Clemson – Vanderbilt stinks.  Clemson is hot.  Clemson wins.
3 Wisconsin vs. 6 USC - USC and Wisconsin should be an excellent matchup.  Both teams play fantastic defense, but I think USC has more guys that can create their own shot.  I’ve loved how USC has played the final month of the season, and how much OJ Mayo has matured, improving his shooting % by taking significantly better shots over the course of the season.  USC moves on to the sweet 16. 
2 Georgetown vs. 10 Davidson – I think Davidson has got a chance to pull this upset.  Davidson defends very well, and Davidson, not Georgetown (Hibbert is overrated) will have the best player on the court in Stephen Curry.  If he gets hot, this game should come down to the wire.  I think that Curry will get hot, and Davidson will keep it close in a defacto home game.  However, Georgetown is 5-0 in games decided by 3 points or less.  That combined with their final 4 experience from last year should allow them to move on. 

South Region:
1 Memphis vs. 9 Oregon – Memphis by 35. 
4 Pittsburgh vs. 12 Temple – Temple should be able to hang tough, since they’ve got enough shot makers to get some buckets against a tough Pitt defense, but Pitt is just playing too well right now.
3 Stanford vs. 6 Marquette – Stanford stinks.  They’ll ALMOST lose to Cornell, and then they WILL lose to Marquette. 
2 Texas vs. 10 St. Mary’s – Texas by 20.

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