Written by Dave Homsher on Monday, 24 March 2008 Category:Sports Hits:4403

After another spectacular first weekend of the NCAA tournament, all I can say is that I need to be a sports writer for a living.  After a 4 day weekend filled with nothing but cold drinks, enormous amounts of food, and 14 hours per day of basketball, my will to go back to a normal 9-5 job is not exactly at an all time high.  Here are my thoughts on an top notch opening weekend to the greatest event in all of sports, along with my picks for the rest of the tournament.   

Quick thoughts:

HOLY FREAKIN’ DAVIDSON!!!  I’ve been hyping them up for weeks, and now the whole country knows why.  Stephen Curry put on two of the most incredible performances in recent tournament memory, scoring FORTY including the game winning 3 pointer against Gonzaga in game 1, and dropping 25 IN THE SECOND HALF against the #1 defense in the country (Georgetown).  Now, Davidson meets up with another incredible defensive team in Wisconsin, but I like their chances.  They are playing great ball, and I expect Curry to hit the big shots down the stretch in another close upset bid. 

LET’S GO NOVA!!!  Who would have thought?!!?  I suspected that they would not even get a bid, but now they went and upset a hot Clemson team and took advantage of a good draw by defeating a solid Siena team in round 2.  Now, they take on a ridiculously talented Kansas team in the sweet 16.  It’s going to be tough, but if Nova’s D can hold Kansas to a reasonable shooting %, and if they can rebound well on the defensive end, they should have a shot to win. 

What an absolutely INCREDIBLE finish to the Western Kentucky/Drake game.  Western Kentucky COLLAPSED in the final 3 minutes of regulation and seemingly handed the game over to Drake.  However, Ty Rogers CASHED a monster BOMB of a three pointer at the buzzer.  We are going to be watching the replay of this one for years to come.   

I said that a #12 seed would win, but as usual, I picked the COMPLETELY WRONG one in Temple.  So sue me.  BOTH Villanova and Western Kentucky advanced not only to the 2nd round, but to the Sweet 16.

I STILL say Butler got completely screwed.  They went out and DESTROYED South Alabama and earned a 2nd round bid where they faced #2 Tennessee.  It was the first time in TWENTY + YEARS that two 30 win teams met in the 2nd round.  Butler made an outstanding comeback, only to fall just short in overtime.  If they had drawn anyone other than the four #1 seeds, Tennessee, or Texas, they would still be playing. 

UCLA is starting to get some ridiculous BS.  Another BLATANTLY terrible call goes their way.  I am officially rooting against them the rest of the way.  That’s their THIRD game this year decided by GARBAGE officiating.  Their luck is officially insane.  Not only are they getting Duke-like help from the referees, but their bracket has seriously opened up as well.  If they don’t make the Final 4 by beating Western Kentucky followed by the winner of Xavier and West Virginia, they should be embarrassed. 

GO HOME DUKE!!  They should have lost in round 1 to Belmont, who played a FANTASTIC game only to be undone by 2 or 3 errors in the final 2 minutes.  What a shame!!  On the bright side, Duke went down to West Virginia in round 2 due mostly to poor 3 point shooting, which was to be expected given how much better the defense is around the country in March. 

UNC looks a lot like a WRECKING BALL OF DESTRUCTION.  They’ve won their 2 games by about 9,000 points each, and neither was even remotely competitive.  However, I have to wonder if the 4 days off are going to hurt them.  In my opinion, they have the toughest draw of any of the #1 seeds to make the final 4, having to go through Washington State and the winner of Louisville/Tennessee.  They are going to have to bring their A game if they want to advance to San Antonio. 

Memphis is not winning the title.  They’ve got a heck of a team, but if the final 2 minutes of the Mississippi State game taught me anything, it’s that no team can win a title shooting 57% from the foul line.  Let’s draw out their potential opponents (in my opinion).  They’ve got to beat Michigan State, Texas, UCLA, and UNC to win the national title.  How in the world are they going to beat those 4 teams in a row while shooting such a terrible percentage from the line?  It’s not happening.  It’s just too hard. 

Sweet 16

East Region:

1 UNC vs. 4 Washington St – This game should be a great contrast of styles.  UNC wants to run a fastbreak all game every game.  Washington State wants to slow it down and win a low scoring game 42-39.  If Washington State can slow down North Carolina, their senior leadership might be enough for them to pull the upset.  However, I think UNC has too many athletes, and should be able to get enough points to win this one 74-66.

3 Louisville vs. 2 Tennessee – In my opinion, this is the best matchup in the sweet 16.  These are two of the best teams in the country, squaring off in a fantastic showdown.  Tennessee might not have a true point guard, but that’s not what you need to counter Louisville’s extreme pressure. What you need is a multitude of good ball-handlers, and that is exactly what Tennessee has in their arsenal.  They are deep, and they are athletic.  Louisville has a great inside presence with David Padgett and lots of solid guards.  This game should be a fantastic contest between two evenly matched teams.  I like Tennessee in a CLASSIC, 72-71.

Midwest Region:

1 Kansas vs. 12 Villanova – Kansas is one of the best teams in the nation, full of great athletes who can score in a variety of ways.  The only thing they are lacking is a go to scorer in the final moments of a close game.  Villanova is playing their best ball of the season and is not a typical #12 seed given the number of quality Big East wins that they’ve attained.  If Villanova can keep the game close by defending like champions, and by avoiding a barrage of Kansas offensive rebounds, they might be able to steal a victory since I have more faith in Scottie Reynolds being clutch than anyone on Kansas’ roster.  Last week, Villanova SPITED me for picking against them by winning not one but TWO tournament games.  I’m hoping the same reverse psychology works again.  Kansas’ athletes prevail in the end, 78-69.

3 Wisconsin vs. 10 Davidson – Davidson is on a serious hot streak, beating Gonzaga in a classic, and then making a comeback from 17 points down against Georgetown (and those of you that have seen Georgetown play a few times this year know that a 17 point deficit against them is like a 30 point deficit against most teams).  Once again, they face a top 3 field goal % defense against Wisconsin, but they’ve already proven that if they can keep the game close, Curry is going to make the big plays in the end.  I’m staying with my favorite underdog to win behind another 30 point barrage from Stephen Curry.  Davidson pulls another major upset, 64-61.

South Region:

1 Memphis vs. 5 Michigan State -  Michigan State enters this game playing extremely well, having beaten a hot Temple team in round 1 and HANDLING a very, very good Pittsburgh team in round 2.  Memphis comes in almost having collapsed against a mediocre Mississippi State team.  They had the game in the bag, but their HORRENDOUS foul shooting (59% on the season) nearly killed them down the stretch.  It’s going to be their undoing before this tournament is over, but not this round.  Memphis is too deep, 77-71.  

2 Texas vs. 3 Stanford – I don’t like Stanford and I haven’t liked them all year.  It took a miracle shot by Brook Lopez for them to defeat Marquette.  They are going to find a much, much tougher challenge from an excellent Texas team.  DJ Augustine is going to get into the paint at will and create for all of his teammates.  Texas wins easily, 81-68.

West Region:

1 UCLA vs. 12 Western Kentucky – Western Kentucky has been the darling of the tournament thus far, along with Davidson.  However, UCLA isn’t going to need any help from the officiating this time.  They are too big, too fast, and too athletic for the Hilltoppers.  UCLA wins in the lock of the weekend, 88-72.

3 Xavier vs. 7 West Virginia – This is probably the hardest game for me to pick out of all the remaining games.  Both teams have very good guards, probably with a slight edge to Xavier.  However, I think the West Virginia has the better “big game” player in Joe Alexander.  He didn’t play great against Duke, shooting only 7-22 from the field, but I think he’ll rebound in a big way.  West Virginia prevails, 76-72.  

Regional Finals:

East Region:

1 UNC vs. 2 Tennessee – This game might as well be for the national title.  UNC is in my opinion the best team in the country, and Tennessee is the best balanced team in the country.  Both teams are deep and can score with the best of them.  Against Butler, Tennessee shows that it could have issues due to a lack of a true point guard.  Against UNC, Ty Lawson will be the difference in a fantastic game.  UNC edges out a nailbiter, 83-81.

Midwest Region:

1 Kansas vs. 10 Davidson – Davidson has ridden the wave of Stephen Curry, and what a wave it’s been.  The exceptional guard play of Jason Richards and Curry gives Davidson a fighting chance against anyone, but Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, and Sherron Collins prove to be too much this time as Davidson’s magical run ends just short of a Final 4 appearance.  Rock Chalk moves into the Final 4, 79-71. 

South Region:

1 Memphis vs. 2 Texas – This is an incredible matchup between two national title contenders.  Memphis has been the best team in the country all season long, suffering only a single loss at the hands of a top notch Tennessee squad.  Texas has got the best backcourt in the country with DJ Augustine and JJ Abrams.  Derrick Rose might be the best pro of this entire college class (yes, perhaps even better than Michael Beasley), but Augustine is the better college star, and is better suited to take over a game.  Chris Douglas Roberts is a superstar, and he might be able to carry Memphis to victory.  Also, Memphis is MUCH DEEPER than Texas, and if the Tigers can get the Longhorns into foul trouble, they will be able to come away with the victory.  However, I see this being the game where Memphis’ foul shooting issues finally catch up with them.  Combine their poor foul shooting with the fact that the game is a virtual home game for Texas in Houston, and I like the Longhorns in a great battle, 85-84.

West Region:
1 UCLA vs. 7 West Virginia – This is one I just can’t envision the Mountaineers winning unless they hit 60% from downtown.  UCLA has got the inside game that neither Duke nor Xavier possessed, with the Bruins touting one of the top big men in the country in Kevin Love.  UCLA moves on to the final 4, 80-72. 

Final 4:

1 UNC vs. 1 Kansas – Now, this should be SOME matchup, between the two most talented, most athletic teams in the country.  Kansas is the ONLY team that can beat UNC in an uptempo sort of game.  On the right day, they can outscore any team in the country.  This should be a high scoring game between the two best offenses in the country.  In the end, I think the edge goes to the team with the best player, national player of the year Tyler Hansborough.  In the final 5 minutes of a close game, we will see the Jayhawks’ lack of a go-to player in the clutch finally come back to haunt them.  UNC pulls away in the final moments 90-84. 

2 Texas vs. 1 UCLA – This matchup of the two best point guards in college basketball (DJ Augustine and Darren Collison) comes down to the final minutes.  UCLA’s depth wears out Texas’ excellent first 5, and the foul shooting that was the demise of Memphis in a similar game, proves to be the ally of the Bruins (73%).  UCLA wins, 78-73.

Championship Game:

1 UNC vs. 1 UCLA – Two fantastic teams meet to decide the 2008 NCAA National Champion.  Both teams are very deep, and will send 9 or 10 players out on the court to keep everyone fresh.  Two of the best big men in the country (Tyler Hansborough and Kevin Love) will square off in a phenomenal matchup of dominant post presences.  Also, two of the quickest, best point guards in the country square off in what should be a thoroughly entertaining game in what would be must-see television of the highest quality.  In the past few weeks, UCLA has had an incredible run of great luck, benefitting from HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE officiating against Cal, Stanford, and Texas A&M.  In a matchup of two evenly matched teams, UCLA simply runs out of luck.  UNC cuts down the nets and wins the National Championship, 82-75.

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